"These will be the worst performing [VC] funds of this vintage"
Another slice of spice from Harry here. Let's dissect.
So the main argument is that $30M-$75M is not enough money to lead rounds in the best seed companies. Because you can't lead, you can't be high ownership, and so on.
𝗦𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮:
About 60% of seed rounds raised less than $5M in 2025
The lead investor in a seed round used to take 50% of the round (on median). These days it's more like 60% - so getting high ownership has indeed become harder in the bigger rounds.
About 1% of seed rounds raise massive cash (call it $50M+) but dominate the media landscape :)
From the data and the conjecture, we can chart some paths!
You can definitely be a high ownership seed fund in the $30M-$75M range if you do not exclusively invest in the "top tier" aka biggest seed rounds. Totally possible.
You can also be a smaller seed fund and not lead, of course.
The assumption behind that statement is that being in the biggest seed rounds is more conducive to better returns. It is indeed a more predictable way to get into potential unicorns...but great returns can be had across the seed size spectrum.
PS: new Carta data on fund returns out next week! Waitlist here: https://lnkd.in/gSA-MUJX
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