We are back in a startup bubble, 4 years after the 2021 bubble peaked.
Obviously the headlines are full of figures from the right side of this table. Valuations at the 90th and 95th percentiles are more likely to get press and Twitter plaudits.
Data from 2,200+ rounds, all primary financings with no extension/bridge clutter.
US only, software companies only, post-money valuations over the last 12 months.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗢𝘂𝘁
Median figures are quite robust - higher in basically every stage than they were last year and rivaling the all-time peak values in early stages (though of course on lower round volume).
The Top 10% column looks like we never left 2021.
The Top 5% column is actually a new peak bubble, 2021 be damned. Thanks AI.
Seed stage unicorns? Sure, why not.
AI clearly taking the upper hand from non-AI across...every single stage?
Comparison remains the thief of joy!
Of course getting a top 10% or even a top 5% valuation in one round is no guarantee of anything in the next. Companies bounce around these percentiles all the time.
Will the best fund-returners come from the eye-watering peaks in these ranges? Or will more rational valuations at early-stages yield better returns in a decade?
Just thought a full view would be more reassuring than the next Fortune headline figure.
#startups #founders #startupbubble
DISCLOSURE: This communication is on behalf of eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. ("Carta"). This communication is for informational purposes only, and contains general information only. Carta is not, by means of this communication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services. This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your business or interests, you should consult a qualified professional advisor. This communication is not intended as a recommendation, offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Carta does not assume any liability for reliance on the information provided herein. © 2026 Carta. All rights reserved. Reproduction prohibited.
