Will 2026 be a great or terrible year for startup hiring?
Data below from US startups on Carta (currently over 60,000 of them).
𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁
The black line is the 3-month moving average of new hires
The orange line is the 3-month moving average of people leaving companies
The space between the lines is the net headcount expansion or contraction.
You can leave a company by choice (departure) or by...not choice (layoff).
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗹 𝗻𝗼𝘄
1. 2018 and 2019 saw strong growth in hiring.
2. Q2 2020 saw a sharp increase in layoffs and fewer new hires.
3. Q3 2020 - Q1 2022 saw the largest hiring boom across startups ever.
4. Q2 2022 saw hiring plummet and layoffs begin ramping up.
5. Since Q1 2023, layoffs have slowly dropped but remain stubborn while hiring is flat to down.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴?
You could look at the hiring and say we're about to ramp back up as new startups need new talent and AI unleashes a swarm of companies.
You could look at the hiring and say 2026 will see fewer hires as new AI startups need less headcount per unit of work.
Are you an optimist or a pessimist for hiring?
(I think I'm shading towards pessimism but it's not a strongly held opinion).
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