The massive IPO of SpaceX last week prompted me to look back at the largest tech debuts on US stock exchanges since 2000. This analysis reveals an interesting pattern: the biggest blockbusters have shifted from providing software and apps to hardware and deeptech.
The 2010s were truly the era of digital aggregation and consumer software. From 2012 to 2020, the biggest public debuts included Facebook, Snap, Uber, Alibaba, and DoorDash. These companies captured human attention, orchestrated logistical networks, and organized data. They didn't build heavy physical assets, but rather won by using software to disrupt legacy media, mobility, and commerce.
It seems that we are now witnessing a deeptech renaissance. Semiconductor producers Arm Holdings and Cerebras debuted on public markets in 2023 and 2026, respectively. Electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian debuted in 2021. And most recently, of course, aerospace giant SpaceX broke all prior records this month. Its opening day market cap was larger than the other top 19 tech debuts combined – even adjusting for inflation.
Of course, it won't just be hardware companies that make massive public debuts going forward. The other big category is artificial intelligence, which will often overlap with hardware, but will also feature powerhouses like OpenAI and Anthropic. These companies may not be producing hardware but are compute-heavy engines closely tied to the development of better, higher-capacity hardware.
Ultimately we may be moving beyond the clean line separating hardware and software. Next-gen AI models will need advanced chips, and modern rockets and EV fleets will need sophisticated software. Companies like SpaceX and Rivian are trying to bridge the gap in their own verticals, and we'll see if the next cohort of big tech companies follow suit.
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