2M ARR in Ten Days The New AI Standard VCs Demand

2M ARR in Ten Days The New AI Standard VCs Demand

Author

Peter Walker

|

Read time: 

1 minute

Published date: 

October 17, 2025

A16z's Bryan Rosenblatt's claim that M ARR in ten days is now expected applies to a narrow slice of AI in San Francisco—not the rest of the startup market.

LinkedIn: 2M ARR in Ten Days The New AI Standard VCs Demand

"$2M ARR in three months used to be impressive. Now we expect it within ten days."

...okay. Deep breaths. I get that it's rage-bait but let's take it seriously for a second.

Most important thing to note here is to figure out who is included in the "we" above.

Bryan is an investor at a16z, in AI apps.

My own assumptions here, but:

  • "we" includes mega-fund VCs investing into AI in San Francisco.

  • "we" excludes...basically all other investors.

As a reminder:

  • Something like 95%+ of venture funds are not mega-funds. There are different thresholds for different players in this multi-faceted game.

  • There are lots and lots of industries where SaaS growth assumptions make little sense, especially at the early stages.

  • Profitability and growth both exist along spectrums. Impressive, but not 99th percentile, growth + real margins is a fundable proposition for many VCs.

  • We're in a bubble 😁

Also "momentum is the only moat"...is just not true?

More and more it feels like the best way to build new startups is to completely avoid the media ecosystem around them, which is at least marginally depressing.

Play the game you want to play - but don't fool yourself by thinking it's the only game in town.

#startups #founders

Peter Walker
Author: Peter Walker
Peter Walker runs the Insights team at Carta, focused on discovering key data and narratives across the private capital ecosystem. In a former life, he was a marketing executive for a media analytics startup and led the data visualization team at the Covid Tracking Project.

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