Do Not Expect a 50M Seed Round If You Did Not Work at OpenAI

If you didn't work at OpenAI, don't expect to raise $50M+ in your seed round.

Headlines are catchy, but those wild dollar amounts are not reality - and it doesn't help an already stressful existence to do a lot of comparing to the outlier values.

Data here is from the last 12 months by stage (and this is just looking at primary rounds, not bridges or extensions).

𝗦𝗲𝗲𝗱

• Median is $3.5M

• 70% are under $5M

𝗦𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗔

• Median is $11M

• Wide distribution but the $10M-$19M segment is the most common

• Even here, the mega round of $50M+ is vanishingly rare

𝗦𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗕

• Median is $20.3M

• Incredibly wide distribution. Some are $9M, some are $55M, this is the round where things really disperse.

𝗦𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗖

• Median is $36.8M

• Very common to get $50M+ here but there are also many smaller Series Cs

Run your own race, ya know? Maybe you need just a seed round, maybe you don't need VC at all, and maybe your business requires real infusions of cash every 2 years.

Also if you're raising a small seed (or anything before seed) consider using SAFEs instead of priced equity. Faster, less costly, etc...but multiple rounds on SAFEs may leave you in a tricky spot come that first real conversion.

This remains the question that AI challenges most clearly: how much money will it take to build a generational business? Many are saying that number will come down over time...and yet every day we see AI-native companies raising massive capital.

Who is right?

#startups #fundraising #founders #seed #SeriesA