"Amazon layoffs...[are about] rote jobs being replaced with AI faster than we expected". Maybe! Or maybe they aren't about AI at all.
Jason says big tech layoffs are about AI.
Carta data shows that startup layoffs are still trending lower (if slowly) and haven't spiked in the age of AI.
So...what's happening? Is AI taking startup jobs?
𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮
Chart below shows the number of employees laid off by quarter by startups on Carta (55,000 cap tables at the moment).
Orange quarters have more layoffs than the Q2 2020 covid spike. Black quarters have fewer.
Trend is for fewer layoffs each quarter, with some variance, since Q1 2023.
𝗧𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀
Well, why 𝘪𝘴𝘯'𝘵 AI taking jobs in startups? I think this is mostly a semantic thing. AI isn't causing a lot of startup layoffs. But it is likely contributing to low startup hiring. So smaller startups at each stage but not through major cuts.
VC funding is rising but only on a dollars-in basis. On a rounds-raised basis, fewer companies are getting funded. Concentration in fewer companies may be holding back the startup employment market.
Still pretty under-appreciated how many people were hired in the boom run of late 2020 and 2021 AND how many were then let go in late 2022 + all of 2023.
Startup layoffs are headed in the right direction but still elevated. AI hasn't caused a massive layoff wave in privates even while it's being blamed for headcount losses in publics.
What will 2026 bring?
#startups #layoffs #AI
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