Founders, it's not just you - there really are fewer and fewer VC rounds happening.
Massive AI rounds get headlines, yes, but there's something uneasy happening below the surface in venture-backed startups.
I plotted the number of rounds per day raised by US startups on Carta since 2018.
Couple points:
1) This is just primary rounds, so we removed bridges / extensions / etc
2) There are a LOT more companies on Carta today than in 2018.
3) Doesn't include SAFEs which would boost the early-stage figures, but the general pattern would remain the same.
So what's happening?
It's a mix of factors, but a few stand out to me as most impactful.
First - plenty of VC funds are still dealing with hangovers from 2021 exuberance.
Second - all of the underlying metrics got much harder. $1.3M in ARR used to get you in the door for a Series A, now it's not close to enough (for SaaS businesses at least).
Third - there's a growing cohort of companies that are avoiding VC for now (maybe forever, we'll see).
Fourth - the AI wave simultaneously excites investors (look at those growth rates) and resets what "good" looks like (so companies that previously would have been solid candidates are no longer attractive). Plus the additional layer of worry around revenue reliability is a new complicating factor.
I'm sure I'm missing 100 things that could be added in as reasons. But overall I'd say this era of fewer, larger deals is confusing to many founders.
Hang in there.
#startups #founders #VC #fundraising
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