The Hottest Part of Seed Is a Great Way to Lose Money

The Hottest Part of Seed Is a Great Way to Lose Money

Author

Peter Walker

|

Read time: 

1 minute

Published date: 

April 10, 2026

The top 5% of seed rounds hit $174M median, up from $62M a year ago—chasing the frothy upper end of seed looks increasingly like a capital destruction exercise.

LinkedIn: The Hottest Part of Seed Is a Great Way to Lose Money

Honestly the "hot" part of the seed market just seems like a good way to lose a bunch of money right now.

I realize AI has changed everything. I get that markets once thought shut are being reopened and new markets hitherto undreamt of are being created.

But...$174 million for a seed company? Really? Especially since that same figure was $62M just a year ago?

It's the top 5% of seed rounds, so not everyone. And it's narrowly concentrated in things like neolabs (building new types of LLMs), AI infra (chips and data centers), or some dev tooling.

But there's more than a faint whiff of 2021 frenzy here.

Hope I'm wrong!

Peter Walker
Author: Peter Walker
Peter Walker runs the Insights team at Carta, focused on discovering key data and narratives across the private capital ecosystem. In a former life, he was a marketing executive for a media analytics startup and led the data visualization team at the Covid Tracking Project.

DISCLOSURE: This communication is on behalf of eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. ("Carta"). This communication is for informational purposes only, and contains general information only. Carta is not, by means of this communication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services. This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your business or interests, you should consult a qualified professional advisor. This communication is not intended as a recommendation, offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Carta does not assume any liability for reliance on the information provided herein. © 2026 Carta. All rights reserved. Reproduction prohibited.