Founders - there is no "right" valuation cap for your early fundraise. Anyone who says differently is lying to you.
Look at how wide these ranges are!
If you raise $1 million on post-money SAFEs in the US, your valuation cap might be $10M. Or $6M. Or $16M.
Of course you don't want to get screwed in a negotiation or give away too much of the company, I understand the worry.
But the data is clear that deals are happening at all sorts of prices for all sorts of people these days. And it really is about the people. Sure, traction matters, as does revenue growth, customer base, product development, all of that.
But for your first round (or 3), it comes back to the people. Can you get investors to believe that you are the right person aligned to a mission that is big enough to matter?
Some founders are "legible" enough just from their resumes alone to be convincing. These founders get multiple offers at high prices.
Some founders are effectively illegible and the burden of proof (fair or unfair) is higher.
But there is no "right" answer to these questions. Searching for fairness or even a defined rubric in early-stage startups is a losing bet.
But I do hope these ranges help establish a shared sense of reality 🙏
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