“Going from $1M to $3M to $9M is not interesting"
As public markets balk at SaaS valuations and it feels like uncertainty is everywhere…everyone turns back to growth.
Growth is the cure-all.
And according to the mega-funds (in this case the always-quotable Hemant Taneja of General Catalyst), what used to be great growth in startupland is no longer interesting.
Old rule of thumb: the category creators across software startups would grow Triple, Triple, Double, Double, Double from the moment they hit $1M in ARR.
Meaning: $1M -> $3M -> $9M -> $18M -> $36M -> $72M in 5 years or so. Better if it's faster, of course, but that was the implicit bar.
Post AI boom, the numbers have gotten bigger, faster.
Today the "best" companies rocket from $1M to $15-$20M to $100M in 3 years. Sometimes they even skip the middle part and go direct to $100M+ in a matter of months.
These pacesetters garner the headlines, scoop the high valuations, and dominate the conversation.
But they also come with a slight uneasiness. A worry that anything that can rocket up that quickly might fall just as fast.
Here are some things I hope are still true:
Something like 95%+ of venture funds are not mega-funds. There are different thresholds for different players in this multi-faceted game.
There are lots and lots of industries where SaaS growth assumptions make little sense, especially at the early stages.
Profitability and growth both exist along spectrums. Impressive, but not 99th percentile, growth + real margins is a fundable proposition for many VCs.
We're in a bubble 😁
Play the game you want to play - but don't fool yourself by thinking it's the only game in town.
DISCLOSURE: This communication is on behalf of eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. ("Carta"). This communication is for informational purposes only, and contains general information only. Carta is not, by means of this communication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services. This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your business or interests, you should consult a qualified professional advisor. This communication is not intended as a recommendation, offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Carta does not assume any liability for reliance on the information provided herein. © 2026 Carta. All rights reserved. Reproduction prohibited.
