AI Is the Clear Outlier at the Seed Stage Right Now

AI Is the Clear Outlier at the Seed Stage Right Now

Author

Peter Walker

|

Read time: 

1 minute

Published date: 

May 8, 2026

Among 1,346 seed rounds in the last 12 months, AI companies are the one bubble that sits far outside every other sector in valuation and round size.

LinkedIn: AI Is the Clear Outlier at the Seed Stage Right Now

Seed stage is pretty normal - with one glaring outlier.

At least in the hearts and minds (and portfolios) of seed-stage investors.

Data below comes from 1,346 seed rounds raised in the last 12 months in the US. Each bubble represents a sector of companies, from Logistics to Fintech to Renewables.

X-axis = median round size Y-axis = median post-money valuation

One of these bubbles is not like the other ones!

Much of the AI Infrastructure build is on new foundational models or deep devtooling.

But if you're building something that's not in those categories, best to ignore the massive valuations in the headlines. Those are for a very narrow set of startups 🙏

Peter Walker
Author: Peter Walker
Peter Walker runs the Insights team at Carta, focused on discovering key data and narratives across the private capital ecosystem. In a former life, he was a marketing executive for a media analytics startup and led the data visualization team at the Covid Tracking Project.

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