What Are the Odds Your Startup Gets Acquired

What are the chances your startup gets bought?

Took a spin through the 553 startups on Carta that were acquired in 2023 and compared it to the general population of US startups on Carta by stage. These percentages are a little fuzzy but still illustrative.

𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹: 𝟭.𝟰% 𝗼𝗳 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗽𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗖𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗮 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿

That's slightly down from the 1.6% that were acquired in 2022.

Other standout data point before jumping into the various stage - wow there are a lot of pre-seed startups! Here defined as any startup that has yet to raise a priced round. So some have raised on SAFEs or notes, but no priced equity.

𝗣𝗿𝗲-𝗦𝗲𝗲𝗱

• 148 acquired out of 20,282

• 0.7% acquire rate in 2023

𝗦𝗲𝗲𝗱

• 109 acquired out of 6,439

• 1.7% acquire rate

𝗦𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗔

• 160 acquired out of 6,195

• 2.5% acquire rate

𝗦𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗕

• 88 acquired out of 2,725

• 3.1% acquire rate

𝗦𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗖

• 32 acquired out of 1,176

• 2.6% acquire rate

𝗦𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗗

• 11 acquired out of 487

• 2.2% acquire rate

What stands out?

I think the rising acquire rate until it peaks at Series B is fascinating. Perhaps that middle VC point is a sweetspot as companies have proven tech and business models but are not yet too large to digest quickly.

We also are unable to see what the actual outcomes are from each acquisition (eg are many of these actually quality exits fro founders and employees or are the majority at cost). Anecdotally last year was a difficult one for high-value exits.

In any case, M&A is one core exit paths for young startups. Not many make it all the way to IPO (even less over the past couple years as the IPO market remained shuttered in most cases).

Shoutout to the founders building in a landscape where exits are few and far between - respect the tenacity!

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#cartadata #M&A #startups #acquisitions #founders #exits