We Are Back in a Startup Bubble Valuation Breakdown

We are back in a startup bubble, 4 years after the 2021 bubble peaked.

Obviously the headlines are full of figures from the right side of this table. Valuations at the 95th and 99th percentiles ("Wild" and "WOW", respectively) are more likely to get press and Twitter plaudits.

Data from 3,000+ rounds, all primary financings with no extension/bridge clutter. US only, post-money vals.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗢𝘂𝘁

• Median figures are quite robust - higher in basically every stage than they were last year and rivaling the all-time peak values in early stages (though of course on lower round volume).

• The Wild column looks like we never left 2021.

• The WOW column is actually a new peak bubble, 2021 be damned. Thanks AI.

• Unicorns are back to being minted in early stages, sometimes even at Seed.

• Hardware and Biotech companies tend to lag on valuation in early stages but catch up in later ones.

• Comparison remains the thief of joy!

Of course getting a Wild or a WOW valuation in one round is no guarantee of anything in the next. Companies bounce around these percentiles all the time.

Will investor returns be driven by the companies in the purple column? Or will the best fund-returners come from the left side of the range?

Just thought a full view would be more reassuring than the next Fortune headline figure.

Here's to building something that lasts 🙏

#startups #founders #startupbubble