It Will Take a Decade Even If Your Startup Succeeds

Founders - it’s going to take a decade. Even if it fails, it’ll take years and years.

and for the seed-stage VCs, planning to complete your full fund lifecycle in 10 years is optimistic to the point of delusion today.

Here's some data on the time (in years) from the day of incorporation to various funding milestones for startups.

Yes, I know funding milestones aren't everything. But if you're on the venture path then they matter - and speed is a major aspect of the VC growth model.

Chart below shows time to primary round (no funny business with bridges or extensions).

𝗠𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗯𝘆 𝗳𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱

• Seed: 1.2 years old

• Series A: 2.8 years

• Series B: 4.9 years

• Series C: 6.7 years

• Series D: 7.6 years

And of course that's just to Series D. How many IPO right after Series D? Very few.

A couple things stand out here. First, obviously, startups are staying private longer and the biggest private companies are beginning to rival their public counterparts in size and influence. No one could have imagined we'd have multiple $300B+ private companies a decade ago, yet here we are.

Second, note the slight downtick in median age from 2024 to 2025 across some stages. I think that's mostly an effect of AI startups speed-racing through funding stages but would need to dig deeper. Blip or new wave?

Third, and this one is for investors, this means 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀.

A company that exits for $1 billion after 15 years is less valuable to your fund than one that used to exit for the same valuation after 10 years.

Or perhaps taking some chips off the table along the way is more appealing now!

Startups are a marathon AND a sprint. Respect to the founders willing to take the plunge 🙏