Move over, 2021 - you're no longer the wildest time for VC-backed startups.
The top 10% of valuations today (yes, mostly comprised of AI companies of various stripes) are significantly higher than the top 10% marks were back in 2021.
We used a 3-quarter moving average here to smooth some of the jagged peaks, which would have made today look even higher FWIW...but the picture is clear regardless.
𝗡𝗼 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗽𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝘁 𝗳𝗮𝗿 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗵 𝗵𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆.
And the valuation velocity has only increased over the past 6 months.
Which means two things:
1. The eventual exits for these companies must be far larger than ever before or...
2. Folks are gunna lose a lot of money.
The market for small IPOs ($1B-$4B or so) is effectively erased at this point.
I'm betting both 1 and 2 happen! But...a lot more 2 😬
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