Venture-backed foundersโit's going to take a decade. Maybe more.
Data below is for companies that raised primary rounds in 2025, but the overall pattern of companies staying private longer has been underway for a half decade.
There are companies that start hot and then stall out. There are others who start slowly and then catch fire 5 years in. But most face a period of wandering in the wilderness. As Paul Graham said of startups, "The surest route to success is to be the cockroach of the corporate world".
๐ฆ๐ผ๐บ๐ฒ ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ๐
It is taking longer. The data below is only priced rounds and the explosion of pre-seed activity means companies may not start their priced equity journey until a few years in.
It doesn't just take a long time for the companies that actually work. ๐๐๐ฒ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฎ ๐๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐๐ฝ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐น๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐น๐ ๐ฑ๐ผ๐ฒ๐๐ป'๐ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ธ ๐ผ๐๐, ๐ณ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ฝ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐.
This is influenced by the closed IPO market, of course. But the expansion of private capital into late-stage companies means that many scale-ups that would have naturally turned towards the public market may not feel the need to IPO quickly. Secondary tenders, anyone?
Not everyone builds for a public exit. Lots of great outcomes through M&A, etc along the way. In fact the "sweet-spot" for startup acquisitions is usually around Series A.
AI impacts these numbers as it has all things in venture. We see AI speedrunners who are back on the "raise multiple rounds in 1ฬถ2ฬถ 6 months" vibe from 2021 โ but we also see AI companies taking in comparatively little capital and growing fast regardless.
The thing that stands out most to me is how long it can take even when it doesn't work out. There are hundreds of founders that are 5 years into a company that will end up shutting down in a few years.
The opportunity cost of founding a company remains super high - respect for those folks doing it anyway.
DISCLOSURE: This communication is on behalf of eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. ("Carta"). This communication is for informational purposes only, and contains general information only. Carta is not, by means of this communication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services. This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your business or interests, you should consult a qualified professional advisor. This communication is not intended as a recommendation, offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Carta does not assume any liability for reliance on the information provided herein. ยฉ 2026 Carta. All rights reserved. Reproduction prohibited.
