Will we see 100 unicorns created in 2024?
We've seen 67 startups on Carta hit that $1 billion valuation mark so far in 2024 - and more each successive quarter.
(side note - there are 638 US startups on Carta currently valued over $1 billion. Crunchbase has the total US unicorn population at 763. 84% not too shabby!)
Of course the first question these days around unicorn startups is not how many new ones are created but how many of the older ones deserved the title in the first place.
Just look at 2021 where we saw 308 new US unicorns. Nearly 1 per day that year.
About 3 years on, only 15% or so of those unicorns have taken down rounds that slipped them under the $1 billion threshold. Some of taken down rounds, but stayed unicorns, and many others have not fundraised since 2021.
How long will that state of affairs last? Obviously founders across the board have taken drastic measures to improve capital efficiency over the past few years, not least of which were the significant layoffs we saw all last year.
Some of those unicorns will grow into their original valuations (just at a much slower pace than originally expected). Some will end up having to take haircuts to the prior valuations. Unfortunately I think this herd is still likely in for some tough sledding moving forward.
Second question - are the unicorns minted in 2024 going to materially outperform the 2021 vintage? Or is the AI valuation bubble analogous to the hype cycle of a few years ago?
Most unicorns in 2024 hit crossed the threshold on their Series C fundraise (although many also get there earlier than that). Hopefully some of the older creatures end up in the public markets next year!
#startups #unicorns #founders #fundraising #valuations #venturecapital
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