The startup gauntlet of 2023 has mercifully come to an end.
And what better way to encapsulate this year than looking towards graduation?
In the before times (meaning pre-2020), the standard advice for early startups was to plan on raising a venture round every 24 months or so.
Across the companies on Carta that raised a priced seed round in 2019, 30% of them had raised their Series A within 2 years.
For the seed cohort of 2021, the percentage that made it to their A in the same timeframe was 19%.
The gap was even bigger if you measure from the inflated graduation rates of 2021, where milk, honey, and VC cash flowed like water.
Of course there are seed-stage startups that raise a Series A after those initial 24 months, so this isn't a full picture of the fundraising funnel. But it's yet another data point illustrating the startup ravine of 2023.
3 predictions for 2024
1. Bridge rounds led by insiders already on the cap table will fall from 38% of all rounds back down to the standard 26% as VCs turn their attention back to new bets.
2. Growth will retake profitability as the most treasured metric for venture capital (though perhaps tempered with "capital efficiency" instead of "at all costs").
3. A major IPO in H1 2024 will signal the return of venture exits (and late-stage valuation multiples and secondary activity and general happiness)...okay, this is wishcasting but let me hope for something.
Despite the chaos, it's been an absolute blast getting to share our insights with you all this year. I'm grateful for your time, attention, and feedback.
May your 2024 be up and to the right!
And please join me in a round of applause for all the Cartans helping Data Minute flourish behind the scenes—Mandy Truong, Danielle Sensley, and Jasmine Foruzani. Life is a lot easier when you work with outstanding people.
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Peter Walker
DISCLOSURE: This communication is on behalf of eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. ("Carta"). This communication is for informational purposes only, and contains general information only. Carta is not, by means of this communication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services. This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your business or interests, you should consult a qualified professional advisor. This communication is not intended as a recommendation, offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Carta does not assume any liability for reliance on the information provided herein. © 2026 Carta. All rights reserved. Reproduction prohibited.
