From the start of 2023 to the end of 2025, capital invested into Seed, Series A, and Series B companies rose 57%. How fun!
But the total number of rounds raised was only 2% higher in Q4 2025 than Q1 2023. Not so fun.
This dynamic is repeating itself across venture, whether at seed stage or pre-IPO: more money is flowing into fewer companies.
At the later stages, this kinda makes sense. If Anthropic is going to need slugs of $10 billion every year or so, it leaves less money for the other late stage participants.
But at early stage, the logic of concentration is a little loose. Some of this is big funds coming down market with bigger checks. Some of this is investors trying to "kingmake" by giving young companies a lot of money and the appearance of having won a category. There are lots of small reasons.
But I wouldn't exactly call this healthy.
Founders - if you're able to raise in this market, you may find the water warm and hospitable. But if you're not in high demand, these are tricky waters.
Onwards.
Cheers,
Peter Walker,
Carta Insights
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